Two Roads to Neutral: Why Tech Positions Are Turning While the Consensus Stays Overweight

Candriam and Invesco converge from opposite directions

Three of the thirteen finalists of the 2026 Asset Allocation Awards published their views in last week, and the debate isn’t about whether technology is carrying the market, but how much longer you should pay up for it. Candriam and Invesco are both reshuffling their sector positions, while LGIM weighs which force lasts longer: the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution or geopolitical disorder. In the background, the global debt counter keeps ticking.

Candriam
Candriam, nominated for the Fixed Income and Sectors Awards, takes profits off US technology: the sector moves from +1 to neutral after the strong rally since May. “This is a tactical change, not a structural call” (Candriam, Monthly Coffee Break Equities, July 2026), the strategic view on semiconductors stays positive. The equity overweight runs through Japan and emerging markets, not the US. That gap between tactics and conviction is what the earnings season will test.
Monthly Coffee Break Asset Allocation, July 2026↗ · Monthly Coffee Break Equities, July 2026↗

Invesco
Invesco, winner of the Sectors Award, publishes its annual debt review: the global debt-to-GDP ratio rose in 2025 to 239.5%, driven mainly by emerging economies. “We assume that more debt brings more risk” (Invesco, Uncommon truths: Global Debt Review 2026). The risk lies in private debt service ratios, climbing wherever rates rose, France leads. Not panic, but the quiet condition under every scenario.
Uncommon truths: Global Debt Review 2026, July 2026↗

L&G Investment Management
L&G Investment Management, nominated for the Equities Award, takes a clear side in the AI-versus-geopolitics debate: “we believe AI will prove the more powerful and longer-lasting force” (L&G, Midyear global outlook 2026). Bond markets feel this first: the AI issuance wave, compared to the 19th century railways boom, is reshaping investment-grade credit indices. AI-watchers should be watching credit too.
Midyear global outlook 2026: AI vs geopolitics, July 2026↗

What It Means for the Consensus
The Asset Allocation Consensus has Information Technology on top with 71% overweight. Candriam (down from +1) and Invesco (up from underweight) are converging on neutral from opposite directions, an early signal. Candriam’s long core-European duration also runs contrary to the underweight government-bond consensus; LGIM offers no explicit equity rating.

Editor’s Note
House Views tracks how the winners and nominees of the Asset Allocation Awards, organised by Alpha Research, think and position. Not to predict markets, but to understand how investment views evolve before the consensus catches up.