The Gulf Is Not the Only Risk
Four managers, four independent reports — one conclusion on where to shelter, but sharp disagreement on what comes next.
Markets have recovered from their March lows. Equities are back near all-time highs. Yet four major asset allocators share a quiet unease: the recovery is running ahead of the facts. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. The debate is no longer about the initial shock, but about duration, second-round effects, and who pays the bill.
Amundi
In its May 2026 Global Investment Views, Amundi, nominee for the Asset Allocation Awards, marks a meaningful shift: what in March appeared a one-off shock is now “an ongoing, longer reality that could eventually turn out to be a macro-financial shock.” Central banks are holding to “disciplined optionality.” Rate cuts have been pushed to 2027.
Pictet Asset Management
Pictet Asset Management, also a nominee, titles its Barometer “calm after the storm”, but that calm is conditional. Global liquidity is growing at 7.4%, a full percentage point above trend. That justifies upgrades to overweight for both US equities and emerging market local currency government bonds. “Our risk allocation remains selective: we would like to avoid reliance on a single macroeconomic or geopolitical development.”
Robeco
Robeco, nominee for the Asset Allocation Awards, goes beyond tactics in its Multi-asset Market Outlook. The central thesis: energy security has permanently broadened from access to oil into domestic generation and storage. Europe, with only six weeks of critical jet fuel supply, is the most exposed. European duration is being priced too hawkishly.
T. Rowe Price
T. Rowe Price, nominee, neutralises its underweight on US equities in its Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe via “America’s market moat”: stronger earnings, AI leadership, energy self-sufficiency and fiscal support. Simultaneously, it deepens its underweight in European equities. “Inflation risks represent a potential market blind spot, given uncertainty around the persistence of the energy supply shock.”
What It Means for the Consensus
Three of four managers independently upgrade the US and reduce Europe, a convergence that reads as an early signal. Whether others follow may reveal as much about conviction as about calendar. Twelve years of Asset Allocation Consensus data suggest strategists move together in May more than they admit.
New to this? House Views tracks how the winners and nominees of the Asset Allocation Awards, organised by Alpha Research, think and position. Not to predict markets, but to understand how investment views evolve before the consensus catches up.