UBP raises cash, Invesco shifts 9 positions, Federated Hermes takes profit on TIPS — what the 2026 winners are doing while everyone watches Hormuz
Four award winners published between 2 and 29 April 2026. Their shared thesis: the oil shock is temporary. Where they disagree is what that means for your portfolio.
The Strait of Hormuz has been closed for two months. Yet markets are not pricing in a structural energy crisis, and the winners of the Asset Allocation Awards 2026 are positioning accordingly. The reports underpinning this edition were published between 2 and 29 April 2026 and form the direct input for the Asset Allocation Consensus that Alpha Research published on 7 May.
UBP — Overall Award & Asset Allocation Award
In the House View of April 2026, UBP significantly raised its cash position and partially hedged equity exposure through options, funded by reductions in equities, fixed income and gold. Within equities, conviction shifted toward energy (upgraded to 4/5) and European defence; Consumer Discretionary was downgraded to 2/5. On fixed income, UBP shortened duration from 4.5 to 3.5 years and reduced exposure to AT1s, high yield and EM local currency bonds. The Fed is expected to remain on hold until 2027, supporting the dollar. Stagflation is not the base case, but the risk rises the longer the conflict continues.
ING Investment Office — Equities Regions Award
The May 2026 Monthly Investment Update shows an unchanged positioning: ING IO maintains a neutral weighting for equities and fixed income. Emerging markets remain overweight, earnings growth of an expected 45% in 2026, valuation around the long-term average. Japan remains underweight given full energy import dependency. IT equities retain the overweight: valuation has fallen below the long-term average, earnings growth remains above average. Energy stays underweight: futures for end-2026 are more than $30 below the spot price, a market-implied signal that the shock is temporary.
Invesco — Equities Sectors Award
The Strategic Sector Selector of April 2026, subtitled Approaching late cycle?, contains nine sector shifts in a single quarter. Upgrades: basic resources (underweight to overweight), construction & materials and utilities (both to overweight), consumer products & services and technology (both to neutral). Downgrades: chemicals, travel & leisure and retailers (all three to underweight) and banks (to neutral). The logic: markets are tilting toward late cycle. Invesco is moving with them, away from the consumer, toward commodities, infrastructure and defensive value. Technology retains favour through margins and cash generation, not through AI sentiment.
Federated Hermes — Fixed Income Award
In Where We Stand of 15 April 2026, Federated Hermes maintains a 5% underweight on fixed income. High yield is underweight: spreads have tightened beyond pre-conflict levels, the Fed is on hold and stress in private credit is building. EM bonds underweight, fundamentals sound, but the risk compensation remains insufficient. TIPS back to neutral after taking profit on a prior overweight. Treasuries overweight as counterbalance. The core logic: no reason to add risk without the spread to justify it.
Northern Trust Asset Management — 21 nominations in 11 years
“As a global economy, we are less dependent on oil than we once were, and more dependent on chips. Technology is the key driver now, not oil like it once was.” Gary Paulin, Chief Investment Strategist International at Northern Trust Asset Management, speaks on behalf of an investment committee that has collected 21 nominations at the Asset Allocation Awards over eleven years, an average of nearly two per year. That institutional track record gives his views weight as a counterpoint to the prevailing market consensus.
In the Investment Perspectives, Paulin supports his macro thesis with three structural arguments. Energy efficiency per unit of GDP has fallen by more than two thirds since the 1970s. Inflation breakevens have barely moved despite the oil shock. And oil futures are in deep backwardation, the market itself is not pricing in a structural disruption. Those three signals point in the same direction: the geopolitical risk premium on energy is temporary, not structural. And those who believe that are positioned differently from the consensus.
Paulin is direct about the implications: “In a world where the range of possible outcomes increases, it is important that we do not just ask what could go wrong, but also ask what could go right.” He observes a structural negativity bias among large asset owners, reacting too heavily to negative headlines while underestimating positive outcomes. His response is not optimism but discipline: systematically weighing both sides of the outcome distribution.
Northern Trust Asset Management has translated that view into concrete portfolio decisions. While being overweight real assets generally, and infrastructure especially, after a quarterly return of approximately 20% in natural resources, profits were taken and the position reduced. At the same time, the underweight in global real estate was brought back towards neutral, an anticipatory move ahead of further rate normalization once the geopolitical risk premium fades. Those who view the oil shock as temporary are buying rate-sensitive assets now. Northern Trust Asset Management has already made that call.
Bottom line
Four winners, four categories, one shared thesis: markets do not expect a structural energy crisis. The futures say it, the breakevens say it, and Northern Trust Asset Management says it most forcefully. Those who believe it are buying rate-sensitive assets now. Those who do not are holding cash, just like UBP.