Three Managers Are Neutral on the US. But Disagree on What Comes Next
One rating, three exits, no consensus shift.
June 30th closed not only the second quarter but the first half of the year, three of the panel’s thirteen nominees for the Asset Allocation Awards open the third quarter with their first reports of the new period. US equities are their shared starting point: all three sit neutral. On where the capital should go, the paths diverge sharply.
House View: Pictet Asset Management
Pictet Asset Management (nominated for the Sectors Award) is the only one of the three to flip the switch explicitly: ‘we downgrade US equities to neutral,’ the Barometer writes, arguing the AI trade is broadening beyond US tech companies into other regions. Overall equities stay overweight nonetheless.
Barometer: Equity rally to roll on as stagflation risks recede, July 2026 ↗
House View: Amundi
Amundi (nominated for the Fixed Income Award) doesn’t change its official rating, US equities stay neutral, but its multi-asset desk does trim practical exposure: ‘we have reduced concentration risk by lowering our exposure to US equities and diversifying into Europe and the equally-weighted S&P 500.’ Europe gets an explicit upgrade in the asset-class table this time.
Global Investment Views, July 2026 ↗
House View: UBS Asset Management
UBS Asset Management (nominated for the Fixed Income Award and the Overall Award) is also neutral on the US, but picks a different destination than the other two: ‘we prefer emerging markets and Japan vs. Europe and Switzerland,’ with Europe explicitly underweight on weaker earnings growth. Where Amundi rotates into Europe, UBS avoids it.
What It Means for the Consensus
Only Pictet confirms an actual change; Amundi and UBS are already at neutral. More importantly: the broader Asset Allocation Consensus still rates US equities overweight. With three panel members now at neutral, one having just turned, this is an early crack, not a tip.
Editor’s Note
House Views tracks how the winners and nominees of the Asset Allocation Awards, organised by Alpha Research, think and position. Not to predict markets, but to understand how investment views evolve before the consensus catches up.
On paper they agree completely, it’s only beneath the rating, in how each actually fills in that ‘neutral’, that the real difference shows.