Three finalists of the Asset Allocation Awards published a tactical asset allocation view in recent weeks, and two of them are reducing their underweight in bonds just as the Consensus cuts government bonds from neutral to underweight. T. Rowe Price and Invesco are thereby moving against the Consensus. On equities these specialists diverge: T. Rowe Price and Candriam turned more positive, while Invesco became more cautious. Notably, France runs through all three reports.
House View: T. Rowe Price
T. Rowe Price, finalist for the Equities Regional Award and the Overall Award, lets go of the two positions that four weeks ago put it furthest from the Consensus: cash and global high yield move from overweight to neutral. Cash remains “reasonably attractive”, but now funds more equities and a smaller underweight in bonds, mainly European government bonds. The argument is France: the European Central Bank (ECB) will therefore tighten less than the market prices in.
Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe, October 2026↗
House View: Candriam
Candriam, finalist for the Sectors Award and the Fixed Income Award, raises US equities from neutral to a slight overweight. The case comes from its own sector map: information technology moved to a strategic overweight at the end of September, as did communication services. The asset manager is “willing to carry an overweight equity exposure”, but the earnings season has to justify it.
Monthly Coffee Break: Earnings take centre stage, October 2026↗
Monthly Coffee Break: The earnings test, October 2026↗
House View: Invesco
Invesco, winner of the Sectors Award and finalist for the Fixed Income Award, turns its model portfolio the other way: fewer equities from Europe ex-UK and Japan, and more Japanese government bonds and investment grade corporate bonds. Equities remain overweight, bonds underweight. On France, Paul Jackson is patient: the spread looks attractive, but “It may be too soon to buy.”
Uncommon truths: Too soon to buy French bonds, October 2026↗
What It Means for the Consensus
Two finalists independently reduce their bond underweight, just as the Consensus cuts government bonds to underweight (rank 21 of 25). An early signal, against the tide. On high yield, T. Rowe Price lands where the Consensus now sits: neutral. On equities, number two in the Consensus, the panel is split.