J.P. Morgan Stays Overweight U.S. and Emerging Market Equities While Pictet's Ten-Year View Argues for Less
Two time horizons, one shared verdict on U.S. equities.
This week’s nominee updates span two horizons. J.P. Morgan Asset Management and Robeco, both nominees for the Asset Allocation Awards, published their regular tactical updates, calls on the coming quarter. Pictet Asset Management added its Secular Outlook 2026, the house’s annual view on the coming decade.
1. J.P. Morgan Asset Management
J.P. Morgan Asset Management, a nominee for the Asset Allocation Awards, stays pro-risk this quarter: overweight U.S., Japanese and emerging market equities, plus U.S. high yield. Notably, the house is more dovish than consensus on Fed and ECB policy, a view it expresses through European government bonds rather than through the rate call itself. For allocators, that is arguably the more important signal: a duration bet carried in the bond sleeve, not written into the equity overweight.
“We remain pro-risk, favoring U.S., Japanese, and emerging market equities”
Global Asset Allocation Views, 3Q 2026↗
High yield here means sub-investment-grade corporate bonds, the riskiest tier of the bond market.
2. Robeco
Robeco, a nominee for the Asset Allocation Award, argues that classic 60/40 diversification is faltering as equities and bonds have moved together more often since 2022. “Diversification is no longer a ‘free lunch’,” the house writes, pointing to the growing dominance of a handful of technology companies within global indices. If that dominance is the real driver, professional investors need a new source of ballast beyond bonds. Robeco’s own portfolio leans into the same concentrated trade rather than away from it, staying long U.S. and emerging market equities.
Multi-asset market outlook, July 2026↗
60/40 refers to the traditional split between equities and bonds meant to offset each other in downturns.
3. Pictet Asset Management
Pictet Asset Management, a nominee for the Sectors Award, brings its Secular Outlook 2026: Our 10-Year Investment Outlook, the house’s annual long-term view. Over the next decade, private equity stands out as the highest-forecast return category at 9.7% per year, ahead of euro zone real estate. For allocators building the next strategic asset allocation, that reframes the illiquidity premium as the highest-conviction return source on the page. Japan also stands out: both Japanese equities and Japanese government bonds see materially higher return forecasts, driven by the end of financial repression and an expected unwinding of the yen-funded carry trade.
“The Japanese yen, arguably, has even greater appreciation potential”
Secular Outlook 2026: Our 10-Year Investment Outlook, June 2026↗
The carry trade means borrowing in a low-yield currency, historically the yen, to fund investments in higher-yielding assets elsewhere.
What It Means for the Consensus
J.P. Morgan and Robeco both stay overweight U.S. and emerging market equities, a tactical, near-term signal. Pictet’s Secular Outlook sits on a different, ten-year horizon, not a like-for-like comparison.
J.P. Morgan and Pictet read the same market through two different lenses this week: one counts the coming quarter, the other counts the coming decade. On most assets those lenses simply disagree in silence. On U.S. equities, they collide in public, and that collision, not the overweight itself, is this week’s real signal.
Editor’s Note
House Views tracks how the winners and nominees of the Alpha Research Asset Allocation Awards think and position. Not to predict markets, but to understand how investment views evolve before the consensus catches up.