AI Builds Itself — But Who Pays the Bill?
Two award-winning managers see the same market rally, and agree that most of the good news is already priced in.
Two managers, one message: the rally is real, but most of the good news is already in the price. The question is not whether AI is driving markets, it clearly is, but whether the cost of building the infrastructure behind it is being priced into rates and inflation expectations.
House View #1 — ING Investment Office
ING Investment Office, winner of the Equities Award, maintains a neutral weighting in both equities and bonds. Strong first-quarter earnings, average profit growth of nearly 28% for companies in the S&P 500 index, have driven record highs, but the manager warns that “we think most of the good news is already reflected in prices”. Within equities, ING maintains its overweight in information technology (IT) and emerging markets. Within bonds, the preference remains for high yield and emerging market bonds over government bonds. No changes from last month, a deliberate neutrality at record highs.
Maandbericht beleggen, juli 2026↗
House View #2 — Northern Trust Asset Management
Northern Trust Asset Management, nominee for the Asset Allocation Award, asks a question policymakers are avoiding: is AI inflationary in the near term? The Investment Perspective of 26 June 2026 argues that the AI infrastructure investment wave, estimated at over eight hundred billion dollars in 2026, is colliding with constrained supply in chips, energy and construction materials. “AI may still be deflationary in the end. But first it must work through the inflationary cost of building itself.” Northern Trust maintains a tactical overweight in global listed infrastructure and an underweight in inflation-linked bonds. The positioning reflects three scenarios: a fiscal and productivity boost (30% probability), a two-speed expansion (40% probability) and a scenario in which economic fault lines broaden (30% probability).
Investment Perspective — Is AI Inflationary or Deflationary?, 26 June 2026↗
What It Means for the Consensus
Two managers, the same conclusion: the good news is priced in. If other panel members also hold or reduce their equity positions, that would be an early signal that the consensus is turning more defensive for the second half of the year. Northern Trust’s AI inflation question adds a dimension the consensus has not yet absorbed.
Editor’s Note
The AI boom is visible in earnings, but the bill for the infrastructure that makes it possible has not yet been fully presented.
House Views tracks how the winners and nominees of the Asset Allocation Awards, organised by Alpha Research, think and position. Not to predict markets, but to understand how investment views evolve before the consensus catches up.
Pushing back a little: the disinflation talk is great, though not enough space is given to the inflationary risks which we are already seeing: Apple raising its prices. The price composition of an iPhone (they have not raised prices on this one yet in order to preserve consumer sentiment) has gone through the roof. That is just one company, a major one with huge market power. I get that we have to look optimistic, but there are already signals from S Korea especially that regardless of the price of chips (huge price increase y/y), someone wants to buy them.